Panera Bread Reports Financial Results for the Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year Ended December 25, 2007
ST. LOUIS, Feb. 12 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Panera Bread Company
For the year ended December 25, 2007, net income was $57 million, or $1.79 per diluted share, compared to $59 million, or $1.84 per diluted share, for the year ended December 26, 2006. Included in the fiscal 2007 results were $0.03 per diluted share of one-time charges, which include a write-down of our investment in the Columbia Strategic Cash Portfolio and a charge related to the discontinuation of the Company's Crispani product line. Excluding these one-time items, fiscal 2007 non-GAAP earnings would have been $1.82 per diluted share. In addition, the fiscal 2007 results include an unanticipated charge of $0.03 per diluted share related to unfavorable FIN48 tax adjustments primarily for certain state tax law changes. A reconciliation of non-GAAP measurements to GAAP results is attached as Schedule II.
The Company's fourth quarter and fiscal 2007 consolidated statements of operations and margin analysis are attached as Schedule I. The following tables set forth, for the periods indicated, certain items included in the Company's consolidated statements of operations (in thousands, except per share data and percentages): For the 13 Weeks Ended Percentage December 25, 2007 December 26, 2006 Change Total revenue $300,843 $232,912 29% Net income $17,834 $18,906 -6% Diluted earnings per share $0.56 $0.59 -5% Shares used in diluted EPS 32,098 32,114 Fiscal Year Ended Percentage December 25, 2007 December 26, 2006 Change Total revenue $1,066,691 $828,971 29% Net income $57,456 $58,849 -2% Diluted earnings per share $1.79 $1.84 -3% Shares used in diluted EPS 32,178 32,044
Fourth Quarter 2007 Key Metrics & Business Review
During the fourth quarter of 2007, comparable bakery-cafe sales increased 2.6% for Company-owned bakery-cafes and 1.2% for franchise-operated bakery-cafes while average weekly sales decreased by 0.2% to $38,947 for Company-owned bakery-cafes and declined by 1.1% to $40,632 for franchise-operated bakery-cafes. This decline in average weekly sales resulted from lower average weekly sales for bakery-cafes opened in 2007, which averaged $35,092 system-wide in the quarter, and the growth of bakery-cafes opened three years or fewer as a percentage of total bakery-cafes opened.
During the fourth quarter of 2007, 39 Company-owned and 25 franchise-operated new bakery-cafes were opened, and two franchise-operated bakery-cafes were closed. As of December 25, 2007, there were 1,230 bakery-cafes open system-wide. The breakdown of bakery-cafes between Company-owned and franchise-operated is as follows:
Company- Franchise- Total owned operated System Bakery-cafes as of September 25, 2007 493 675 1,168 Bakery-cafes opened 39 25 64 Bakery-cafes closed - (2) (2) Bakery-cafes as of December 25, 2007 532 698 1,230
Ron Shaich, chairman and CEO, commented, "We are very pleased to be able to report Q4 results which materially exceeded our targets. We are also pleased to report that the 2.5% price increase we took on November 14, 2007 was accomplished with no noticeable degradation in transaction growth in the face of significant recessionary fears among consumers. We are seeing the first signs of traction on the initiatives that will deliver against our action plan of improved margins, transaction growth and strengthened return on incremental invested capital."
2008 Business Outlook
2008 Full Year Financial Target
The Company is today narrowing its earnings per diluted share growth target for fiscal year 2008 to 12% to 18% ($2.00 to $2.11 per diluted share). The full year 2008 target assumes the following key assumptions:
Relative to margins, the 2008 target assumes the Company is able to raise prices approximately 5% in 2008. The 2008 target also assumes the removal of Crispani and a resulting benefit of 80-100 basis points in the labor margin.
Rapidly escalating wheat costs will have a significant impact on the Company in 2008. The Company is essentially fully booked on its wheat commitment for 2008 at all-in costs (wheat futures plus basis) of $14.00 per bushel, on average. This compares to the average cost of $5.80 per bushel of wheat in fiscal 2007, which results in an additional wheat related cost of $26.5 million in 2008. The Company assumes it will increase its dough prices from its fresh dough facilities (the primary user of wheat) to its company and franchise stores as rapidly as it can throughout the year consistent with its contractual agreements and the attendant structural limitations. The Company expects that dough prices will increase by 11% on average in 2008, which compares unfavorably to a 16% increase needed to cover the impact of the inflation in wheat. However, in the second half of the year, the Company expects to have taken enough price to cover all wheat cost inflation in that half of the year.
In terms of transactions, the Company has a number of significant initiatives in place to hold or drive transactions positive. However, given the difficult consumer environment and the potential impact of Panera's pricing initiatives, the Company is conservatively assuming 2.5% to 3.5% in Company-owned bakery-cafe sales growth.
In terms of return on invested capital, the Company now believes it makes sense to raise its sales hurdles to improve its return on investment for new cafes. This comes as a result of the margin contraction the Company has experienced in the last 24 months. Given its higher hurdles and site selection standards, the Company will open approximately 40 Company-owned and approximately 60 franchise-operated bakery-cafes in fiscal 2008 and 40-50 Company-operated and 60-70 franchise-operated bakery-cafes in fiscal 2009, while retaining the ability to accelerate growth as margins, returns and the performance of new units improve. As a result of its enhanced selection standards, the Company now expects system-wide new unit average weekly sales in fiscal 2008 to be between $36,000 and $38,000.
Quarterly Financial Targets
The quarterly distribution of the Company's earnings in fiscal 2008 will be materially impacted by that quarter's all-in wheat price versus the cost of wheat in the comparable quarter of 2007 and the timing of the Company's ability to effect dough price increases for retail and fresh dough facilities.
Below are the Company's financial targets with respect to the first and second quarters of fiscal 2008, as well as the second half of fiscal 2008.
For the first quarter of 2008, the Company anticipates earnings per diluted share of $0.36 to $0.42 per diluted share versus $0.47 per diluted share in the comparable period of fiscal 2007. The first quarter 2008 target assumes that the removal of Crispani generates a 50 basis point improvement in labor. It also assumes all-in wheat costs of $13.00 per bushel versus $5.80 per bushel in the prior year. In the first quarter, dough price increases in place will be 5%, which is short of the 14% increase needed to cover the cost of wheat. The target also assumes retail price increases of 3% and comparable Company-owned bakery-cafe sales growth of 2.5% to 3.0%. Please note that through the first six weeks of the first quarter of fiscal 2008, comparable bakery-cafe sales for Company-owned bakery-cafes have grown 2.8% and comparable bakery-cafe sales for franchise-operated bakery-cafes have grown 1.2%.
For the second quarter of 2008, the Company anticipates earnings per diluted share to range from $0.37 to $0.43 versus $0.39 per diluted share in the comparable period of fiscal 2007. The second quarter 2008 target assumes that the removal of Crispani generates a 100 basis point lift to labor margin. The target also assumes that wheat costs are $17.25 per bushel versus $5.80 per bushel in the prior year. This will require a 22% increase in dough prices to break even, but only a 13% dough price increase will be in place. The target also assumes retail price increases of 5.5% and comparable Company-owned bakery-cafe sales growth of 2.5% to 4.5%.
For the third and fourth quarters of fiscal 2008, the Company anticipates earnings per diluted share of $1.22 to $1.32 per diluted share versus $0.93 per diluted share in the comparable period of fiscal 2007. The second half of fiscal 2008 target has the following assumptions: a benefit of 100 basis points to labor margin from the removal of Crispani; wheat costs of $13.00 per bushel versus $5.80 per bushel in the prior year and dough pricing in place to match the inflation in the cost of wheat; retail price increase of 5.5%; and comparable bakery-cafe sales growth of 2.5% to 4.5%.
Ron Shaich, chairman and chief executive officer concluded, "We face several significant challenges as we take on the new year: unprecedented inflation in the wheat markets, executing appropriate pricing adjustments and an uncertain consumer environment. But despite these, we are very optimistic about 2008. We are very pleased to have locked in wheat for the year below the market and to be ready and able to execute price adjustments to mitigate the extraordinary run-up in wheat costs. We believe the removal of Crispani coupled with our category management and retail pricing initiatives will directly impact margins over the next 24 months and drive an improved return on capital. We're also optimistic that, despite the economic uncertainties in our country, we can hold or improve transactions through a continued commitment to long-term concept differentiation and a focus on breakfast sandwiches, increased media trials and strong operations. Despite the extraordinary commodity pressures we experience, we expect 2008 and 2009 will be very good years for Panera Bread."
The Company will discuss fourth quarter and fiscal year 2007 results in a conference call that will be broadcast on the Internet at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time on Wednesday, February 13, 2008. To access the call or view a copy of this release, go to http://www.panerabread.com/investor. Access to the call and the release will be archived for one year.
Company-owned comparable bakery-cafe sales percentages are based on sales from bakery-cafes that have been in operation and Company-owned for at least 18 months. Franchise-operated comparable bakery-cafe sales percentages are based on sales from franchised bakery-cafes, as reported by franchisees, that have been in operation and franchise-operated for at least 18 months. Both Company-owned and franchise-operated comparable bakery-cafe sales exclude closed locations. System-wide comparable bakery-cafe sales percentages are based on sales at both Company-owned and franchise-operated bakery-cafes.
Franchise-operated and system-wide comparable bakery-cafe sales percentages are non-GAAP measures and as such, should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for other measures of performance prepared in accordance with GAAP and may not be comparable to system-wide comparable bakery-cafe sales as defined or used by other companies. We do not record franchise-operated bakery-cafe sales as revenues. However, our royalty revenues are calculated based on a percentage of franchise-operated bakery-cafe sales. We use franchise-operated and system-wide sales information internally in connection with store development decisions, planning, and budgeting analyses. We believe franchise-operated and system-wide sales information is useful in assessing consumer acceptance of the Company's brand; facilitates an understanding of financial performance and the overall direction and trends of sales and operating income; helps us appreciate the effectiveness of our advertising and marketing initiatives which the Company's franchisees contribute based on a percentage of their sales; and provides information that is relevant for comparison within the industry.
Panera Bread Company owns and franchises 1,167 bakery-cafes under the Panera Bread(R) and Saint Louis Bread Co.(R) names as of December 25, 2007. With its identity rooted in handcrafted, fresh-baked, artisan bread, Panera Bread is committed to providing great tasting, quality food that people can trust. Highlighted by antibiotic free chicken, whole grain bread, select organic and all-natural ingredients and a menu free of man-made trans fat, Panera's bakery-cafe selection offers flavorful, wholesome offerings. The menu includes a wide variety of year-round favorites, complemented by new items introduced seasonally with the goal of creating new standards in everyday food choices. In neighborhoods across the country, guests are enjoying Panera's warm and welcoming environment featuring comfortable gathering areas, relaxing decor, and free internet access provided through a managed WiFi network. At the close of each day, Panera Bread bakery-cafes donate bread and baked goods to community organizations in need. Additional information is available on the Company's website, http://www.panerabread.com. Panera also holds a 51% interest in Paradise Bakery & Cafe, Inc., owner and franchisor of 63 bakery-cafes as of December 25, 2007.
Matters discussed in this news release, including any discussion or impact, express or implied, on the Company's anticipated growth, operating results, and future earnings per share, contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. These statements are often identified by the words "believe", "positioned", "estimate", "project", "target", "continue", "intend", "expect", "future", "anticipates", and similar expressions. All forward-looking statements included in this release are made only as of the date of this release, and we do not undertake any obligation to publicly update or correct any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances that occur or which we hereafter become aware, after that date. Forward-looking information expresses management's present belief, expectations, or intentions regarding the Company's future performance. The Company's actual results could differ materially from those set forth in the forward-looking statements due to known and unknown risks and uncertainties and could be negatively impacted by a number of factors. These factors include, but are not limited to, the following: inability to execute our growth strategy, including, among other things, variations in the number, timing, and successful nature of Company-owned and franchise-operated bakery- cafe openings and continued successful operation of bakery-cafes; failure to comply with government regulations; loss of a member of senior management; inability to recruit qualified personnel; failure or inability to protect our brand, trademarks, or other proprietary rights; competition; rising insurance costs; disruption in our supply chain or increases in ingredient, product, or other supply costs; disruptions or supply issues in our fresh dough facilities; health concerns about the consumption of certain products; complaints and litigation; risks associated with the acquisition of franchise- operated bakery-cafes; other factors, some of which may be beyond our control, effecting our operating results; and other factors that may effect restaurant owners or retailers in general. These and other risks are discussed from time to time in the Company's SEC reports, including its Form 10-K for the year ended December 26, 2006 and its quarterly reports on Form 10-Q.
Schedule I PANERA BREAD COMPANY CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS (unaudited) (In thousands, except per share amounts) For the 13 Weeks Ended December 25, 2007 December 26, 2006 Revenues: Bakery-cafe sales $255,914 $188,811 Franchise royalties and fees 17,632 16,584 Fresh dough sales to franchisees 27,297 27,517 Total revenue 300,843 232,912 Costs and expenses: Bakery-cafe expenses: Cost of food and paper products 77,558 55,238 Labor 80,832 57,378 Occupancy 19,925 13,805 Other operating expenses 33,518 25,038 Total bakery-cafe expenses 211,833 151,459 Fresh dough cost of sales to franchisees 23,005 22,769 Depreciation and amortization 15,516 12,117 General and administrative expenses 16,039 13,865 Pre-opening expenses 3,601 2,232 Total costs and expenses 269,994 202,442 Operating profit 30,849 30,470 Interest expense 283 82 Other (income) expense, net 1,065 615 Income before minority interest and income taxes 29,501 29,773 Minority interest (income) expense (308) - Income before income taxes 29,809 29,773 Income taxes 11,975 10,867 Net income $17,834 $18,906 Basic net income per share $0.56 $0.60 Diluted net income per share (1) $0.56 $0.59 Shares used in calculation of basic EPS 31,792 31,426 Shares used in calculation of diluted EPS 32,098 32,114 (1) The $0.56 per diluted share results for the 13 weeks ended December 25, 2007 include a one-time charge of $0.03 per diluted share related to the Columbia Strategic Cash Portfolio write-down and discontinuation of Crispani. The $0.59 per diluted share results for the 13 weeks ended December 26, 2006 include a one-time charge of $0.03 per diluted share related to the previously reported Paradise acquisition. See Schedule II for further information. Schedule I (continued) PANERA BREAD COMPANY CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS (unaudited) (In thousands, except per share amounts) For the fiscal year ended December 25, 2007 December 26, 2006 Revenues: Bakery-cafe sales $894,902 $666,141 Franchise royalties and fees 67,188 61,531 Fresh dough sales to franchisees 104,601 101,299 Total revenue 1,066,691 828,971 Costs and expenses: Bakery-cafe expenses: Cost of food and paper products 277,715 197,182 Labor 286,238 204,956 Occupancy 70,398 48,602 Other operating expenses 121,325 92,176 Total bakery-cafe expenses 755,676 542,916 Fresh dough cost of sales to franchisees 86,579 85,618 Depreciation and amortization 57,903 44,166 General and administrative expenses 68,966 59,306 Pre-opening expenses 8,289 6,173 Total costs and expenses 977,413 738,179 Operating profit 89,278 90,792 Interest expense 483 92 Other (income) expense, net 333 (1,976) Income before minority interest and income taxes 88,462 92,676 Minority interest (income) expense (428) - Income before income taxes 88,890 92,676 Income taxes 31,434 33,827 Net income $57,456 $58,849 Basic net income per share $1.81 $1.88 Diluted net income per share (1) $1.79 $1.84 Shares used in calculation of basic EPS 31,708 31,313 Shares used in calculation of diluted EPS 32,178 32,044 (1) The $1.79 per diluted share results for the 13 weeks ended December 25, 2007 include a one-time charge of $0.03 per diluted share related to the Columbia Strategic Cash Portfolio write-down and discontinuation of Crispani. The $1.84 per diluted share results for the fiscal year ended December 26, 2006 include a one-time charge of $0.03 per diluted share related to the previously reported Paradise acquisition. See Schedule II for further information. Schedule I (continued) PANERA BREAD COMPANY CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS MARGIN ANALYSIS (unaudited)
The following table sets forth the percentage relationship to total revenues, except where otherwise indicated, of certain items included in the Company's consolidated statements of operations for the period indicated. Percentages may not add due to rounding:
For the 13 Weeks Ended December 25, 2007 December 26, 2006 Revenues: Bakery-cafe sales 85.1% 81.1% Franchise royalties and fees 5.9 7.1 Fresh dough sales to franchisees 9.1 11.8 Total revenue 100.0% 100.0% Costs and expenses: Bakery-cafe expenses (1): Cost of food and paper products 30.3% 29.3% Labor 31.6 30.4 Occupancy 7.8 7.3 Other operating expenses 13.1 13.3 Total bakery-cafe expenses 82.8 80.2 Fresh dough cost of sales to franchisees (2) 84.3 82.7 Depreciation and amortization 5.2 5.2 General and administrative expenses 5.3 6.0 Pre-opening expenses 1.2 1.0 Total costs and expenses 89.7 86.9 Operating profit 10.3 13.1 Interest expense 0.1 - Other (income) expense, net 0.4 0.3 Income before minority interest and income taxes 9.8 12.8 Minority interest (income) expense (0.1) - Income before income taxes 9.9 12.8 Income taxes 4.0 4.7 Net income 5.9% 8.1% (1) As a percentage of Company bakery-cafe sales. (2) As a percentage of fresh dough sales to franchisees. Schedule I (continued) PANERA BREAD COMPANY CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS MARGIN ANALYSIS (unaudited)
The following table sets forth the percentage relationship to total revenues, except where otherwise indicated, of certain items included in the Company's consolidated statements of operations for the period indicated. Percentages may not add due to rounding:
For the fiscal year ended December 25, 2007 December 26, 2006 Revenues: Bakery-cafe sales 83.9% 80.4% Franchise royalties and fees 6.3 7.4 Fresh dough sales to franchisees 9.8 12.2 Total revenue 100.0% 100.0% Costs and expenses: Bakery-cafe expenses (1): Cost of food and paper products 31.0% 29.6% Labor 32.0 30.8 Occupancy 7.9 7.3 Other operating expenses 13.6 13.8 Total bakery-cafe expenses 84.4 81.5 Fresh dough cost of sales to franchisees (2) 82.8 84.5 Depreciation and amortization 5.4 5.3 General and administrative expenses 6.5 7.2 Pre-opening expenses 0.8 0.7 Total costs and expenses 91.6 89.0 Operating profit 8.4 11.0 Interest expense 0.1 - Other (income) expense, net - (0.2) Income before minority interest and income taxes 8.3 11.2 Minority interest (income) expense - - Income before income taxes 8.3 11.2 Income taxes 2.9 4.1 Net income 5.4% 7.1% (1) As a percentage of Company bakery-cafe sales. (2) As a percentage of fresh dough sales to franchisees. Schedule II PANERA BREAD COMPANY RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP MEASUREMENTS TO GAAP RESULTS (unaudited)
In addition to the results provided in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles ("GAAP") throughout this release, the Company has provided non-GAAP measurements to exclude the impact of certain one-time charges on the fiscal 2007 and 2006 results. The fiscal 2007 one-time charges totaled $0.03 per diluted share and include a write-down of our investment in the Columbia Strategic Cash Portfolio of $0.02 per diluted share and a charge of $0.01 per diluted share related to the discontinuance of our Crispani product line. The fiscal 2006 results include a one-time charge of $0.03 per diluted share related to the Paradise acquisition.
The Company is providing the table below because management believes it provides useful information to investors regarding the Company's results of operations by providing current and prior reported amounts on a comparable basis. The non-GAAP net income and earnings per share amounts of $18,924 and $0.59, respectively, for the 13 weeks ended December 25, 2007; $58,546 and $1.82, respectively, for the fiscal year ended December 25, 2007; $19,978 and $0.62, respectively, for the 13 weeks ended December 26, 2006; $59,921 and $1.87, respectively, for the fiscal year ended December 26, 2006 are considered "non-GAAP financial measures" under applicable SEC rules because they are adjusted to exclude one-time charges in the fourth quarters of fiscal 2007 and 2006, which are not included in the directly comparable measures calculated in accordance with GAAP. These non-GAAP financial measures are not a substitute for the reported GAAP measures.
Schedule II (continued) PANERA BREAD COMPANY RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP MEASUREMENTS TO GAAP RESULTS (unaudited)
The adjustments for the one-time charges had the following effect on reported amounts (in thousands, except earnings per share):
For the quarter ended December 25, December 26, 2007 2006 GAAP Net income $17,834 $18,906 Plus: Cash fund and Crispani one-time charges, net of tax 1,090 - Plus: Paradise one-time charge, net of tax - 1,072 Non-GAAP Net income $18,924 $19,978 GAAP diluted earnings per share $0.56 $0.59 Plus: Cash fund and Crispani one-time charges, net of tax 0.03 - Plus: Paradise one-time charge, net of tax - 0.03 Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share $0.59 $0.62 Shares used in diluted EPS calculation 32,098 32,114 Schedule II (continued) PANERA BREAD COMPANY RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP MEASUREMENTS TO GAAP RESULTS (unaudited) For the fiscal year ended December 25, December 26, 2007 2006 GAAP Net income $57,456 $58,849 Plus: Cash fund and Crispani one-time charges, net of tax 1,090 - Plus: Paradise one-time charge, net of tax - 1,072 Non-GAAP Net income $58,546 $59,921 GAAP diluted earnings per share $1.79 $1.84 Plus: Cash fund and Crispani one-time charges, net of tax 0.03 - Plus: Paradise one-time charge, net of tax - 0.03 Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share $1.82 $1.87 Shares used in diluted EPS calculation 32,178 32,044
CONTACT: Jeff Kip, Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer of
Panera Bread Company, +1-314-633-7289
Web site: http://www.panerabread.com/
http://www.saintlouisbreadco.com/
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