Digesting What We Eat: Scott native studies trends (1/2)

Produces 'crystal ball' analysis of how Americans consume food Pop quiz: What have Americans been consuming more of over the past 20 years -- coffee, hamburger, french fries or fried chicken? Harry Balzer, a Chicago-based food trends analyst who works for The NPD Group, a research firm， enjoys asking that kind of question because so often what everyone thinks the nation's consumers are consuming differs from what they really are. "The money is in what we do, not what we say we do," said Balzer. The results come out in September in the 20th annual edition of "Eating Patterns in America," a thick and pricey tome that will be devoured by food industry companies. What the Book Contains Last year's edition was 459 pages of charts on dieting and takeout food, kitchen appliances and snacks, plus the conclusions that Balzer draws from data in daily consumption diaries completed by about 2,000 U.S. households. Balzer, whose career in food began at age 16 as head grillman at the long-gone Bonanza Steakhouse in Scott, is in the midst of chewing over numbers that will help him tease out the latest trends in how people use and consume food. Balzer's own fascination with the minutiae of food spills across the table at the Panera Bread restaurant on Greentree Road, where he has come to talk business while on a visit to his mother, who still lives in Scott. Balzer randomly selects page 234 of the 2004 edition, which turns out to have data on the number of snack meals per person. The chart shows Americans ate 266 snack meals in 1996. In 2004, they had 250. "And, yet, conventional wisdom would tell you, oh yeah, they're snacking more, they're snacking more than ever before," Balzer said. How about the percentage of meals that include a vegetable? According to the book, the number fell from 18.1 percent in 1985 to 13.7 percent last year. Balzer doesn't need to check the book to drop food facts rapid-fire into the conversation. The hot story in appliances? Crock-Pot-style slow cookers and in-home grills. Not because they offer cutting-edge technology, but slow-cooker meals are easy to prepare ahead of time and in-home grills require little cleanup. The growth in takeout foods that has been driving sales for grocery stores and restaurants appears to be stalling out, a worrisome development for many companies. Balzer flips through pages of his book that show four years of flat numbers. And so on. Why The Book Is Valuable The very detailed information in the report is a great tool, said Deb Fifles, director of market research for Del Monte Foods Co., adding, "That is particularly invaluable for new product and strategy development." Companies are looking for direction and opportunity, which is not the same as the latest fad. In fact, they want to know the difference between a fad that will be gone quickly and a trend that has meaning. To illustrate, Balzer noted hamburger consumption is dropping, but burgers are still the No. 1 food ordered in restaurants by men and No. 2 for women, behind french fries. That may be why, health debates aside, the Pittsburgh area is seeing an influx of new burger chains such as Johnny Rockets, Fatburger and Red Robin. The trick is coming up with a contemporary product that fits consumer habits. That's how Starbucks became successful with its pricey lattes. While coffee consumption has been declining for years, coffee is still the No. 1 thing people have at breakfast time. Balzer thinks hamburger chains are still missing an opportunity shown by the data. "Does anybody in America market a burger for women?" he asked. Where The Data Is Mainly from The firm, which has grown to include research on myriad products from toys to footwear, collects food consumption data mainly from consumers. An average of 2,000 households participate in surveys each year, receiving a retail gift worth between $25 and $30.