Who wins when boomers dine out more?

Aging baby boomers are digging into a growing share of restaurant meals, a trend that has created some winners and losers as it shakes up an industry that has tended to cater to younger customers.

One beneficiary is Panera Bread Co., whose homey interiors, soft music and fresh ingredients have helped it maintain strong growth, even as Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. and McDonald's Corp., which performed well during most of the economic downturn, have disappointed investors lately. Analysts say those two chains appeal primarily to a younger crowd.
Meanwhile, Burger King Worldwide Inc., which has long targeted young men, beat expectations for same-store sales growth in its latest quarter, thanks in part to efforts to appeal to an older generation.

Older customers are going out to eat with almost the same frequency as younger ones, and their share of total restaurant visits is increasing, according to a new study by market-research firm NPD Group Inc. Per-capita restaurant visits among those 48 and up now average 210 a year, versus 211 for 18- to 47-year-olds. That's a big change from 2008, when older consumers ate out an average 207 times, compared with 240 for 18- to 47-year-olds.

The reason: Boomers, as a group, have more discretionary income, partly because they are delaying retirement, while younger people have been harder hit by the nation's stubborn unemployment problem.

The restaurant industry has been fueled by 18- to 34-year-olds for decades. But NPD restaurant analyst Bonnie Riggs, the author of the new study, says the growing importance of boomers—those born between 1946 and 1964—is going to force restaurants to rethink the way they market themselves. The study found that boomers and their older counterparts now account for 46% of restaurant visits, up from 40% in 2008, while the share of visits by 18- to 47-year-olds has declined to 54% from 60%.

"Restaurants shouldn't stop marketing to the younger generation, but this older group has more money, so why not go after them?" Ms. Riggs says.

Panera thinks of itself as "the prototypical baby boomer concept," said founder and co-Chief Executive Ronald Shaich, 58. About 41% of Panera's customers are 50 or older, compared with 30% overall at such "fast casual" chains, a category that also includes Chipotle.

Ricki Kaplan, 65 years old, says she has increased her restaurant visits over the past two years to at least three times a week, from once every other week, because she is busier than ever. "I have no desire to cook anymore," she said recently at a Panera bakery-cafe in Vernon Hills, Ill., where the menu includes such fare as a Napa almond chicken salad sandwich, a roasted turkey Fuji apple salad and cream of chicken and wild rice soup.

Ms. Kaplan, who works with her husband, a self-employed accountant, said the two of them have traded down from more expensive steak restaurants because of the tough economy. But the bill for lunch at Panera, which the chain says averages $9 per person, "seems reasonable to me," Ms. Kaplan said.

It doesn't hurt that nearly 13% of Panera's frequent customers have an annual income of between $100,000 and $150,000, according to consulting firm Technomic Inc. Just 7.2% of frequent McDonald's customers fall into that income group.

Panera has catered to older consumers from early on, partly because the rest of the market was so crowded. "If the entire world is focused on 18- to 34-year-old males, that didn't seem the place to be," says Mr. Shaich, its CEO.

Panera's profit rose 27% to $36.5 million in the three months ended Sept. 25, the latest in a string of strong quarters, as revenue jumped 17% to $529.3 million. Its shares have risen 15% this year.

Checks at Chipotle also average $9. But while many of its customers are affluent, some analysts say the chain relies more heavily on young people, who are more likely to be lured away by Yum Brands Inc.'s YUM -9.92% Taco Bell.

Chipotle's stores are loft-like spaces, with exposed beams and pipes. The advertising for its burritos is built around youth-oriented messages, such as: "Usually when you roll something this good, it's illegal."

Hedge-fund manager David Einhorn, whose Greenlight Capital has a short position in Chipotle stock, said in a third-quarter letter to investors that his firm surveyed more than 1,600 Chipotle customers and found that most of them have tried a new line of burritos and bowls at Taco Bell that resemble Chipotle's offerings but cost less. The new line includes higher-end ingredients than typically found at Taco Bell, such as guacamole made from fresh, rather than canned, avocados.

Chipotle says it hasn't been hurt by Taco Bell. "We have a broad customer base, and although our heavy users tend to be younger, our customer base definitely includes baby boomers," a spokeswoman said, but wouldn't cite specific numbers.

In its latest quarter, Chipotle's profit rose 20% from a year earlier, but fell short of Wall Street's expectations. Sales growth slowed, which the company attributed to the struggling economy. Its shares, after rising sharply from 2009 through 2011, are down 21% this year.

Panera also has benefited from serving breakfast, which accounts for 20% of its sales, and Chipotle says it is considering offering breakfast. Older boomers now drive breakfast sales, NPD says. The morning meal has been the one bright spot for the industry, with breakfast visits showing 3% growth in the year ending Aug. 31, while lunch and dinner visits have remained flat.

Fast food is still largely consumed by young people, with 26% of the sector's customers ages 18 to 34. But Burger King learned the hard way that focusing too much on a younger demographic was a mistake. For many years, the burger chain did well by targeting hungry young men. But as the economic downturn hit those customers the hardest, Burger King's sales plummeted, and it introduced new products like snack wraps, smoothies and salads to broaden its appeal.

Burger King's mix of customers age 50 or older increased in the third quarter from the second, Steve Wiborg, its North America president, told investors last month, when the company reported that its same-store sales rose 1.4%, topping expectations. The company also said it experienced a slowdown in overall same-store sales growth from the second quarter.

Wendy's Co. also has benefited from a greater focus on older, more affluent customers. Earlier this month it reported that same-store sales for the third quarter increased 2.7% in its North American company-owned restaurants and rose 2.9% at franchised restaurants. Chief Executive Emil Brolick said Wendy's has been offering coupons on more premium products, which helped the chain attract "slightly older, slightly higher-income and slightly more educated" customers who tend to order higher-margin products.

In October, McDonald's reported a 3.5% decline in third-quarter earnings and earlier this month it said October's same-store sales fell for the first time in nine years, blaming factors including the weak economy and stronger competition.

According to Technomic data, McDonald's heaviest users—those who visit the chain at least once a month—are between the ages of 18 and 44